What Are the Best Tips for Betting on the NFL?
It's not just the players who are scoring! 45.2 million Americans wagered on the 2021-2022 NFL season. That's up by 36% over the previous year.
NFL gambling is becoming easier, cheaper, and more fun. Yet that doesn't mean that you are guaranteed to win your money. If you want to make betting on the NFL lucrative, you need to study some gambling tips.
How can you make smart and informative bets? What types of wagers should you make? What are some of the risks involved in NFL gambling?
Answer these questions and you can become a premium NFL gambler in less time than you think. Here is your comprehensive guide.
Pick a Team
Sports gambling is more effective when you focus your attention on one team. When you're betting on sports teams from all over the country, you risk making wagers based on limited evidence. You can focus your attention on one team and track all developments that affect the coaches and players.
Consider choosing a team that is not your hometown team. Your emotions and personal experiences with the team may skew your action and cause you to lose money. If you focus on a team in a different division, you can set your feelings aside and make bets based on logic and evidence.
You can select a successful or unsuccessful team. The important thing is that the team has reliable information about it and you feel comfortable making bets for and against it.
Follow the News
The NFL regular season has nearly 300 games taking place in an 18-week period. You don't have to watch every single game, but you need to watch the news so you know the latest developments that affect your team.
Read newspapers and watch reports from your team's local area. Most local news stations have journalists who are dedicated to the area's NFL team, and they will report all important developments. Take notes on who a team is hiring, what the dynamics between the coaches and the players are like, and how practices are going.
Before your team faces off against another team, you should do some research on the opposing team. You should not bet if you cannot find reliable information on it.
During the off-season, you should still follow the news. Visit the team's website to see announcements about personnel and new players.
Many sports writers like to hype new players or make predictions of who will win and lose games. Avoid the hype as much as possible. Focus on the statistics and historical data to make up your own mind on who will win and lose.
The American Gambling Association (AGA) prepares guides on sports gambling and the NFL. Feel free to read the AGA guide to sports betting so you know what good practices for betting on sports are.
Be Mindful of the Points Spread
Point spread bets involve betting on the winner to win by a certain number of points. Even if you are correct about the winner, you will lose your bet if they do not exceed the margin that the bookie provides.
NFL games are usually decided by a small number of points. 15% of regular season games between 2000 and 2022 had a margin of victory of three points. 9.3% had a margin of 7 points while 5.9% had a margin of 6 points.
This means that betting on games with large point spreads is a losing strategy. Even if one team is a heavy favorite, it is not likely to score more than 14 points over their opposition. Make moneyline bets instead.
Incorporate Total Bets Into Your Strategy
Though many NFL games are close, the teams tend to score a significant number of points. More than 200 regular season games between 2000 and 2022 had a point total of 37, 41, 44, or 51 points.
Over/under or total bets let you make wagers on the total number of points that both teams will score. A bookie will provide an estimate of how many points the teams will score, and you can decide if the teams will make more or fewer points.
Given how many games have high point totals, you should consider betting over the bookie's estimate. But do your research and see how evenly matched the teams are. The stronger the defenses on both teams, the fewer points each team will score.
It does not matter who scores the points. This makes over/under bets less risky than point spread wagers.
Keep in mind that it is rare for a game to end with a very low number of points or a very high number of points. If your bookie estimates 30 or 40 points in a game, you need to do your research on both teams to see whether you should go under or over. You should always bet over a low estimate and under a high one.
Go Beyond Points
NFL gambling is about more than the outcomes of games. Many people like to bet on quarterbacks, wagering on how many touchdown passes or yards they will throw. You can bet on wide receivers and defensive players as well.
Take a look at the wagers a bookie is taking. If you know a lot about a player and think they will do well against the other team, you should consider betting on them. If you're having good luck with your bets on individual players, you can focus on them exclusively.
Betting on players can have its risks. A player can get injured on any play. If someone is not doing well at the start of the game, the coach may bench them.
Look at how a player has been performing in practices as well as during live games. Be careful with betting on someone who has a history of injuries or who has not played in a while.
Avoid Parlays
Parlays are multi-event bets. You may bet on who wins the game, how many points the winning team scores, and how many yards the quarterback throws. You may bet on different games, deciding who the winner is for each one.
If you are correct on each event, you can win a significant amount of money. But if you are wrong on just one event, you lose all of the money you have wagered.
NFL games have too many random variables to make parlays effective. A referee can nullify the outcome of a game-winning touchdown or field goal. The quarterback or wide receiver can get injured, affecting how many points a team can score.
Even if you're confident in your team and individual players, you should refrain from making parlays. Make a bet on the outcome and then make a few independent wagers on the players you like. These bets give you multiple opportunities to earn money, and you may earn a profit if you lose one or two of the wagers.
Be Careful With Futures Bets
Futures bets are bets on long-term outcomes. You can bet on who will win next year's Super Bowl or who will be the MVP. You can also bet on how many wins a team will have next year.
Bookies start taking futures bets as soon as the Super Bowl is over. You can make them at any point up until the start of a season, though a bookie may give you better odds if you make your bet well before the season begins.
Futures bets are high-risk, high-reward. There is no reliable way to know who will win the Super Bowl. But if you're correct, you can win a lot of money.
If you're interested in futures bets, you need to research everyone considered to be the favorite for the next season. Some bookies provide lists of favorites. Start with their lists and then go from there, focusing your attention on the statistics instead of the hype from commentators.
Some bookies have a "FIELD" option. If you bet on the FIELD option, you are wagering that none of the favorites will win the Super Bowl. Consider making a FIELD bet if you don't think any of the favorites' odds are strong.
Bet only a small amount of money on your futures bets. You can still earn thousands of dollars, but you will diminish your risk. Make only one futures bet in a season and focus your attention on moneyline wagers.
Start Betting on the NFL the Smart Way
Don't start betting on the NFL until you get your act together. Pick one team and do a deep dive on them, taking notes on important players and matchups. Focus most of your bets on the outcomes of games or on individual players' performances.
Make as few parlays as possible and be deliberate with your futures bets. Point spread wagers are risky due to how close games can be. Consider making bets on the total number of points instead.
These are essential NFL gambling tips, and there's more to learn. Read more NFL betting guides by following our coverage.